Diplomats at the IAEA, the nuclear watchdog of the UN, have said that most US intelligence on Iran shared with the agency has proven inaccurate, and that none of it has led to any significant discoveries inside the country. Additionally, the tips provided by the CIA and other western spy services have shown no clear evidence that Iran is developing illegal weapons.

A senior diplomat working at the IAEA said, “Since 2002, pretty much all the intelligence that’s come to us has proved to be wrong.� Another official described the stream of intelligence as running �very cold,� due to its lack of validity. The reliability of US information and assessments on Iran is under increased scrutiny as the war drum is beat by the Israeli and American governments.

Not being a big fan of science or the facts, the Bush administration has implanted the possibility into the public discourse that a military confrontation will occur if Iran continues to support Iraqi insurgents and continues to move forward with their nuclear weapon ambitions. However, even if they were proven to be true, neither of these �cases for war� are actually cases for war.

Before the Iraq War, IAEA officials openly challenged US assessments that Saddam Hussein was developing a nuclear bomb. The CIA faced criticism for its false pre-war intelligence on Iraq, and American officials now privately acknowledge that much of their evidence on Iran’s nuclear plans and programs remains ambiguous, fragmented, and difficult to prove. In fact, a classified draft assessment from November, done by the CIA itself, also found no evidence of a drive by Iran to develop nuclear weapons.

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