In Ireland, the economy is not the only thing in meltdown. Fianna Fail, the majority partner in government are in political turmoil. They are on the brink of not being the largest party in the country since the foundation of the state. Their support has dropped to an average of 20% in recent months, putting them well behind their rivals Fine Gael and nearly on par with the Labour Party, who have traditionally propped up either party into government. There is currently an election campaign under way for local councils over the country and 12 seats in the European parliament.

For Fianna Fail the biggest race of the election is in Dublin where they are struggling to hold onto their European parliament seat. The constituency has been redrawn so that four sitting MEP’s are battling it out for just three seats this time around. Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell and Labour’s Proinsias De Rossa are both regarded as shoe-ins. Before last Saturday, the race for the last seat was regarded as a two horse race between Eoin Ryan and Sinn Fein’s Mary Lou McDonald.

A TNS-MRBI poll in the Irish Times last Saturday introduced another face into the race. Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party has previously been a member of Dail Eireann (Irish parliament) for the Dublin West constituency and is well known for his campaigns against water charges, bin taxes and for the rights of exploited workers for the Turkish company Gama, with Joe going to prison for his part in the bin tax protest. These struggles have made Higgins a household name in working and middles class households alike, giving the Socialist Party the chance to reach a much wider audience than it would traditionally receive.

Higgins stands at 9% in the poll, having gone up 2% since the last of its kind. He is joined on 9% by Eoin Ryan, with Mary Lou McDonald down 3% at 12%. The significance of this poll is that one week before election day McDonald and Ryan are on a steep downward slope and Higgins is rising in popularity, due in some small way to peoples resentment of the negative campaigns and very visual bickering between Ryan and McDonald.

Ireland votes with a single transferable vote system, whereby on each ballot you may vote for your candidates in order of preference, e.g. 1,2,3 and so on. Should your 1 vote be eliminated, your vote then transfers to your number 2 in assisting them to meet the quota. (It’s much more complicated than that, but this is the simple explanation.) As such, we may see a lot of tactical voting that may well swing in Higgins favour, albeit as they may prove to be, from an unlikely source. Labour voters second preference for Higgins will mean little, given that De Rossa will likely sneak above the quota on the first or second count. Mitchell of Fine Gael, the party of business as they present themselves, may prove to be a larger transferrer of votes to the socialists than one would expect. Fine Gael voters would find it difficult to give a preference to Fianna Fail, as they are attempting to overtake them, for the first time, as the largest party in the state. They would find it even more difficult to give any support to Sinn Fein, a party that Fine Gael have not regarded as legitimate and are still treated with intense suspicion by the Fine Gael base.

The only viable option for these voters, if they find the idea of either  Fianna Fail or Sinn Fein as repugnant, is Joe Higgins, who, most acknowledge whether they agree with him or not, is a very capable politician with unique satirical oratorical ability. The Socialist Party, to Fine Gael are not a threat, likely as they are to join a smaller political grouping in the European parliament.

For the Socialist Party, gaining a European seat would open a lot of doors. Higgins has already signified his intention to run for the Irish parliament when the next general election arises, which would see an existing Socialist Party councillor filling his European seat. Higgins is also running as a local election candidate. Success in Europe would also enable the party to nominate a replacement for him on the local level should he succeed in both races. This would allow the party to bring more personalities to the fore, and reduce their reliance on existing councillors as standard bearers.

Before Friday June 5th’s election Higgins needs to secure a further 1.5% in first preference votes to be in with a real chance of being elected. Non an unthinkable proposition, considering it is Higgins with the momentum and there is no clear indication of where transfer votes will end up.

Higgins campaign in the city of Dublin, an area with a population of over a million people, has been run on a budget of 28,000 euro by 90 volunteers. His election would be a considerable feat for a poorly resourced yet deeply committed candidacy.

The people who are best informed in matters such as these are those who have money to win or lose, which is why I regularly check Joe Higgins odds on the Paddy Power bookmakers website. Joe Higgins has dropped from 8 to 1, to 6 to 4. It wouldn’t be a bad bet.